FAA Air Traffic Reductions Pose a Growing Risk for U.S. Air Cargo; DHL Express Sees Sharp Volume Drop After U.S. Ends De Minimis Exemption

The Federal Aviation Administration has ordered reductions of up to 10% in air traffic at about 40 airports nationwide, a direct response to staffing shortages and the prolonged federal government shutdown. The cuts began at 4% and are expected to reach 10% by mid-November if conditions don’t improve. While the move sounds disruptive for air cargo, the immediate impact has been somewhat contained: many cargo flights operate outside the 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. window covered by the restrictions, and international operations remain exempt.

Still, domestic air freight could begin to feel real pressure if these limitations persist. Much of the U.S. domestic cargo system relies on passenger belly capacity, which means fewer flights could quickly translate into reduced lift and slower movement of time-critical freight. Major carriers including FedEx, UPS, and Delta Cargo say they are already shifting schedules and rerouting shipments to maintain service quality.

Shippers are being urged to build contingency plans in case restrictions extend. For now, the system is holding together, but with risk levels rising, logistics teams should stay vigilant in monitoring capacity constraints and airport-specific restrictions.

The end of the U.S. de minimis exemption - which previously allowed imports under roughly $800 to enter without duties or taxes - is rapidly reshaping B2C cross-border commerce. In their earnings results, DHL Express reported a significant 32% year-over-year decline in billed weight on U.S.-bound international shipments in Q3, reflecting the immediate effects of added duties, longer clearance times, and higher delivery costs.

DHL’s leadership signaled that consumer-focused inbound flows will not bounce back quickly. Many small-parcel e-commerce shippers are now reevaluating fulfillment strategies, potentially shifting to localized inventory or regional distribution partners to avoid new import frictions.

In response to the shifting market, DHL is focusing on efficiency improvements, cost control, and optimizing trade lanes where additional capacity remains under-utilized. For logistics and e-commerce professionals, the strategic takeaway is clear: the removal of de minimis has permanently altered cost structures and routing decisions for low-value goods. Companies reliant on frequent smaller shipments should assess landed cost impacts and consider alternative supply chain configurations for future resilience.