Holiday Delivery Networks Brace for Mixed Volume Signals; JB Hunt Sees Peak Optimism Despite Pull-Forward Freight

Major parcel carriers are preparing for a complicated 2025 holiday season as forecasts point to modest growth rather than a dramatic surge. FedEx, UPS, USPS and Amazon are each using a blend of automation, regional routing, and flexible labor planning to handle peak volumes while avoiding the costly overcapacity mistakes of past years. Analysts expect overall parcel growth in the low single digits, with e-commerce continuing to drive most demand. USPS is leaning on its network of Sorting and Delivery Centers and faster ground options, while UPS and FedEx are focusing heavily on predictive analytics and customer forecasting. Amazon’s internal logistics network gives it more insulation, but it still relies on partnerships for final-mile coverage in certain markets. Carriers are also expecting returns processing to remain a major volume driver deeper into January. The big question is whether consumer spending tapers off due to inflation anxiety or holds steady thanks to early promotions. Either way, carriers are aiming for precision instead of brute seasonal capacity. Brands should optimize inventory and shipping strategies as much as possible to stay competitive.

JB Hunt’s third-quarter earnings showed a freight market that remains uneven but more hopeful heading into the holiday period. The company reported revenue bumps in intermodal and dedicated contract services, while brokerage remained pressured by rate softness. Executives said some shippers pulled seasonal cargo forward to avoid port congestion and tariff uncertainty, but most still plan for a traditional peak season. Intermodal demand benefited from routing shifts away from West Coast gateways and greater reliance on inland rail hubs. 

Cost discipline and fleet efficiency helped offset weaker spot pricing. Management noted that inventories have normalized, meaning retailers don’t expect excess clearance events to define the quarter. However, macro signals remain mixed, with interest rates and consumer confidence influencing order cadence. JB Hunt expects steady but not explosive peak volume and believes contract freight will outperform spot. The company also sees long-term upside in autonomous fleet tech and intermodal expansion even if near-term rates stay flat.