What the 2026 Rate Changes at UPS Mean for Your Shipping Budget; U.S.–China Trade Truce Offers Breathing Room

UPS has announced a 5.9% General Rate Increase (GRI) coming in 2026, but shippers shouldn’t take that percentage at face value. The real story is how selectively the increases are being applied. Lighter parcels, long-zone ground shipments, large packages, and residential deliveries are all seeing increases that rise well above the average. Surcharge adjustments are also expanding, including higher fees for Delivery Area Surcharges.

These targeted changes mean that shippers dependent on e-commerce-style fulfillment, particularly those shipping to homes with lower-weight items, may experience a true cost impact significantly higher than 5.9%. This compounded cost effect often comes from layered surcharges that don’t show up in the headline figure.

Shippers should start auditing shipping profiles now: What zones do you ship to most? What percent of packages are under 5 pounds? How often do you incur residential fees? With that data, explore negotiations earlier than usual, and consider alternative carriers or regional fulfillment to reduce long-zone exposure. 

The United States and China have agreed to a one-year trade truce, easing immediate pressure in one of the world’s most critical supply relationships. According to Supply Chain Dive, the deal pauses new tariff actions, delays ongoing investigations into Chinese shipping and logistics practices, and opens the door to more predictable trade flows for the next year. But the underlying tension remains. Hot-button issues including technology competition, intellectual property security, and industrial policy are still unresolved. 

For importers and supply-chain leaders, this window provides an opportunity: lower tariff risk, fewer sudden regulatory shocks, and more breathing room to place longer-lead-time orders. Still, it would be risky to assume stability beyond 12 months. Brands should continue diversifying supplier bases, building dual-sourcing where feasible, and maintaining contingency logistics plans.